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From: Claire W. Gilbert <claire_ät_blazingtattles.com>
Date: Wed, 5 Jan 2005 16:38:34 -0800
Subject: [MAWS General List] Trio of storm systems could have
devastating impact on U.S.
To: MAWS_General_List_ät_yahoogroups.com
http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/10565468.htm
Posted on Tue, Jan. 04, 2005
Trio of storm systems could have devastating impact on U.S.
By Seth Borenstein
Knight Ridder Newspapers
WASHINGTON - Moisture-laden storms from the north, west and
south are likely to converge on much of America over the next several days
in what could be a once-in-a-generation onslaught, meteorologists forecast
Tuesday.
If the gloomy computer models at the U.S. Climate Prediction
Center are right, we'll see this terrible trio:
- The "Pineapple Express," a series of warm wet storms heading
east from Hawaii, drenching Southern California and the far Southwest, which
already are beset with heavy rain and snow. It could cause flooding,
avalanches and mudslides.
- An "Arctic Express," a mass of cold air chugging south from
Alaska and Canada, bringing frigid air and potentially heavy snow and ice to
the usually mild-wintered Pacific Northwest.
- An unnamed warm, moist storm system from the Gulf of Mexico
drenching the already saturated Ohio, Tennessee and Mississippi valleys.
Expect heavy river flooding and springlike tornadoes.
All three are likely to meet somewhere in the nation's
midsection and cause even more problems, sparing only areas east of the
Appalachian Mountains.
"You're talking a two- or three-times-a-century type of thing,"
said prediction center senior meteorologist James Wagner, who's been
forecasting storms since 1965. "It's a pattern that has a little bit of
everything."
While the predicted onslaught is nothing compared with the
tsunami that ravaged South Asia last week, the combo storms could damage
property and cause a few deaths.
The exact time and place of the predicted one-two-three punch
changes slightly with every new forecast. But in its weekly "hazards
assessment," the National Weather Service alerted meteorologists and
disaster specialists Tuesday that flooding and frigid weather could start as
early as Friday and stretch into early next week, if not longer.
"It's a situation that looks pretty potent," Ed O'Lenic, the
Climate Prediction Center's operations chief, told Knight Ridder. "A large
part of North America looks like it's going to be affected."
Kelly Redmond, the deputy director of the Western Regional
Climate Center at the Desert Research Institute in Reno, Nev., where an
unusual 18 inches of snow is on the ground already, said the expected heavy
Western rains could cause avalanches. Since Oct. 1, Southern California and
western Arizona have had three to four times the normal precipitation for
the area.
"Somebody is in for something pretty darn interesting," Redmond
said.
The last time a similar situation seemed to be brewing -
especially in the West - was in January 1950, O'Lenic said. That month, 21
inches of snow hit Seattle, killing 13 people in an extended freeze, and
Sunnyvale, Calif., got an unusual tornado.
The same scenario played out in 1937, when there was record
flooding in the Ohio River Valley, said Wagner, of the prediction center.
Meteorologists caution that their predictions are only as good
as their computer models. And forecasts get less accurate the farther into
the future they attempt to predict.
"The models tend to overdo the formation of these really
exciting weather formations for us," said Mike Wallace, a University of
Washington atmospheric scientist.
Yet the more Wallace studied the models the more he became
convinced that something wicked was coming this way.
"It all fits together nicely," Wallace said. "There's going to
be weather in the headlines this weekend, that's for sure."
Wagner was worried about the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys as
the places where the three nasty storm systems could meet, probably with
snow, thunderstorms, severe ice storms and flooding. Some of those areas
already are flooded.
The converging storms are being steered by high-pressure ridges
off Alaska and Florida and are part of a temporary change in world climate
conditions, O'Lenic said.
Over equatorial Indonesia, east of where the tsunami hit,
meteorologists have identified a weather-making phenomenon called the
Madden-Julian Oscillation. It's producing extra-stormy weather to its east.
Similar oscillations in the north Atlantic and north Pacific are changing
global weather patterns. Add to the strange mix this year's mild El Nino - a
warming of the equatorial Pacific - which is unusually far west, Redmond
said.
There's also another, more playful explanation: The nation's
weathermen are about to converge on Southern California, and they bring bad
weather with them.
The American Meteorological Society will meet next week in
usually tranquil San Diego, which should be hit with the predicted storms
and accompanying flooding in time for the group's gathering.
In 1987,when the meteorologists met in San Antonio for their
convention, the city had ice storms. In 1993, when they gathered in Anaheim,
Calif., it rained for 4.5 out of five days and triggered mudslides. Atlanta
got rare snow during the meteorologists' 1996 convention. And in 2003 in
Long Beach, Calif., heavy rain greeted them.
Ron McPherson, the group's recently retired executive director,
said: "It always rains on the weatherman's parade."
---
For more information on the Web, check out the Climate
Prediction Center's weekly hazard assessment, at
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/index_gloss.html
© 2005 KR Washington Bureau and wire service sources. All Rights Reserved.
http://www.realcities.com
Claire W. Gilbert, Ph.D., www.blazingtattles.com, HOT! Conyers to Object to
Ohio Electors, Requests Senate Allies,
http://www.truthout.org/docs_04/123104W.shtml,
Cobb Calls On Congress to Reject Tainted Electoral College Votes,
http://www.commondreams.org/news2004/1230-04.htm
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