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Kirjoittajan mukaan: Olli Haukkovaara (cruzan_at_hidden_email_address.net)
Päiväyksen mukaan: 28.08.2005



Alla Katrinasta kiinnostuneille pitkä juttu...

  • Forwarded message ----------

There are 16 messages totalling 820 lines in this issue.

Topics in this special issue:

  1. Katrina Category 4 145 MPH winds
  2. Cat 5 at 7am
  3. Katrina Chasing (2)
  4. Tornado Rainbands Over Poor Terrain? (4)
  5. Freaking 175mph Katrina Cat 5 / F3 to Flood New Orleans? Chase? (3)
  6. Stormtrack Hurricane Board
  7. NWS warning (2)
  8. Winds Now Reported 184MPH! NWS warning (2)

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Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 00:45:29 -0500 From: Greg Geiger <grgeiger_ät_FRONTIERNET.NET> Subject: Katrina Category 4 145 MPH winds

...SHORTLY AFTER 1215 AM CDT... 0515Z... AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN HURRICANE KATRINA HAD INCREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH... CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+- To unsubscribe from WX-CHASE send e-mail to LISTSERV_ät_PO.UIUC.EDU with "unsub wx-chase" in the body of your message. For more information write chris_ät_lib.siu.edu.


Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 07:27:51 -0400 From: Steve Marshall <stormnet_ät_ZOOMINTERNET.NET> Subject: Cat 5 at 7am

TWC reports at 7am Sunday that Katrina hit Cat 5 and is still on target = for a direct hit on New Orleans.

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Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 05:40:58 -0600 From: Roger Hill <rogerehill_ät_EARTHLINK.NET> Subject: Katrina Chasing

Well folks, I am off to catch a flight to Houston and chase this REALLY bad boy! If this hurricane continues is intensification I want NO part of the eyewall. That would certainly be asking for trouble. I will monitor its progress from Slidell, LA today and either bunker down for the storm or move a bit farther east into southern MS to survive it!

Good luck to all out there, and for goodness sakes BE CAREFUL!! This may be the biggest and baddest cane to hit the gulf state since Camille!!!! 915 MB pressure???? That is INSANE!! Don't be surprised to see cat 5 status TODAY.

Roger Hill

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Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 09:59:09 EDT
From: Davehoadley56_ät_CS.COM
Subject: Tornado Rainbands Over Poor Terrain?

I am closely watching Katrina's daylight, Tuesday-morning forecast for the NE quadrant and possible tornadic rain bands. As of mid-morning Sunday, it looks like the optimum area N through E of the low will be over poor chase country. I am unfamiliar with NE Alabama and NW Georgia, but it looks like the southern extension of the Appalachians with many hills, winding roads, and limited
visibility.

Is anyone familiar with that area?

I will need to decide tonight or early tomorrow morning, in time to drive down from Virginia for a Tuesday chase. Right now, the odds look a little too long to be worth it, give the likely poor terrain (not to mention local flooding on county roads). I may have to wait for later storms to track farther east and over flatter country.

Last year I chased Ivan from central and SE Alabama and the Florida panhandle into central and NE Georgia --and found it reasonably flat and good chase country. However, looks like Katrina's NE quadrant will substantially clear that
area by daybreak.

  • - - Dave Hoadley

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Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 09:26:25 -0500 From: Lon Curtis <curtis_ät_VVM.COM>
Subject: Re: Tornado Rainbands Over Poor Terrain?

Davehoadley56_ät_CS.COM said:
> I am closely watching Katrina's daylight, Tuesday-morning forecast for the
> NE
> quadrant and possible tornadic rain bands. As of mid-morning Sunday, it
> looks like the optimum area N through E of the low will be over poor chase
> country. I am unfamiliar with NE Alabama and NW Georgia, but it looks
> like the
> southern extension of the Appalachians with many hills, winding roads, and
> limited
> visibility.

>

> Is anyone familiar with that area?
> ==

  It is exactly as you have perceived it.

Lon Curtis

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Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 10:41:51 -0400 From: Patrick Walshe <pwalshe_ät_COMCAST.NET> Subject: Re: Tornado Rainbands Over Poor Terrain?

Once you get about 20-30 miles west of I 59 in Alabama there are some flat areas and some decent vistas but there is quite a bit of rolling terrain too....Trees are a definite irritant. NW GA and E TN have some excellent places to view but the storms have to come to you. There is considerable chance of trees, hills and ridges blocking you in this area if you choose to go chasing after the storms. The Cumberland Plateau, SE of BNA, offers some "better" terrain but it appears that it may be too far west at this point. I would be out for sure but I have found that tornado watches in this area are conducive to me having to work.

Patrick

  • Original Message ----- From: <Davehoadley56_ät_CS.COM> To: <WX-CHASE_ät_listserv.uiuc.edu> Sent: Sunday, August 28, 2005 9:59 AM Subject: [WX-CHASE] Tornado Rainbands Over Poor Terrain?

> country. I am unfamiliar with NE Alabama and NW Georgia, but it looks
> like the
> southern extension of the Appalachians with many hills, winding roads, and
> limited
> visibility.

>

> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
> To unsubscribe from WX-CHASE send e-mail to LISTSERV_ät_PO.UIUC.EDU with
> "unsub wx-chase" in the body of your message. For more information write
> chris_ät_lib.siu.edu.

>

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Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 11:10:46 -0500 From: Bill Tabor <bill_ät_TORNADOXTREME.COM> Subject: Re: Tornado Rainbands Over Poor Terrain?

With the strength of this storm I wouldn't be surprised to find tornadic rainbands far inland and
lasting for a number of days especially if it just eventually slows and spins. Dave - it may come
to you.

Bill
----- Original Message -----
From: "Patrick Walshe" <pwalshe_ät_COMCAST.NET> To: <WX-CHASE_ät_listserv.uiuc.edu>
Sent: Sunday, August 28, 2005 9:41 AM
Subject: Re: [WX-CHASE] Tornado Rainbands Over Poor Terrain?

> Once you get about 20-30 miles west of I 59 in Alabama there are some flat areas and some decent
> vistas but there is quite a bit of rolling terrain too....Trees are a definite irritant. NW GA and
> E TN have some excellent places to view but the storms have to come to you. There is considerable
> chance of trees, hills and ridges blocking you in this area if you choose to go chasing after the
> storms. The Cumberland Plateau, SE of BNA, offers some "better" terrain but it appears that it may
> be too far west at this point. I would be out for sure but I have found that tornado watches in
> this area are conducive to me having to work.

>

> Patrick
>

> ----- Original Message -----
> From: <Davehoadley56_ät_CS.COM>
> To: <WX-CHASE_ät_listserv.uiuc.edu>
> Sent: Sunday, August 28, 2005 9:59 AM
> Subject: [WX-CHASE] Tornado Rainbands Over Poor Terrain?
>
>
>> country.  I am unfamiliar with NE Alabama and NW Georgia, but it
looks like the
>> southern extension of the Appalachians with many hills, winding roads, and limited
>> visibility.
>>
>> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
>> To unsubscribe from WX-CHASE send e-mail to LISTSERV_ät_PO.UIUC.EDU with
>> "unsub wx-chase" in the body of your message.  For more information
write chris_ät_lib.siu.edu.
>>
>

> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
> To unsubscribe from WX-CHASE send e-mail to LISTSERV_ät_PO.UIUC.EDU with
> "unsub wx-chase" in the body of your message. For more information write chris_ät_lib.siu.edu.
>
>
>

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Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 12:31:46 -0500 From: Steve Miller <txt_ät_TEXASTAILCHASER.COM> Subject: Re: Katrina Chasing

Here is an excellent rapid scan hi-res satellite loop of Katrina. I'm watching it this morning in awe. Check out the several smaller vortices embedded in the eyewall swirling around in it. Awesome stuff.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeflt.html

Steve Miller
KD5FMI
SteveMillerGalleries.com
TexasTailchaser.com

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Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 12:44:42 -0500 From: Bill Tabor <bill_ät_TORNADOXTREME.COM> Subject: Freaking 175mph Katrina Cat 5 / F3 to Flood New Orleans? Chase?

Freak out! 175 mph winds!? I don't even remember there ever being a hurricane from the Atlantic
with winds that high. Surely this is higher than Camille? That would be also an F3 tornado damage
speed.

Even trying to be somewhat conservative it seems reasonable this could be the doomsday scenario for
New Orleans they've been talking about for years. Take a look at this chart which is very good.
http://www.nola.com/hurricane/images/goingunder.pdf It's 24 mb pdf, but nice in that it shows the
path of Betsy, and details on the levy system. The leftmost levy in the diagram is 14 feet and the
one by the Mississippi is 21 feet. Cat 3 will be has high as the levy system at 14 feet but waves
can still wash over. Cat 4 surge is 19 feet and is over the levy flooding the city. Cat 5 is 24
feet and over both levees. Keep in mind this is a low tide value! What would wave heights be on top
of surge!?

Lets hope it doesn't hit the city directly or slightly west as Lon mentioned otherwise it doesn't
fair good. Current forecast estimates still put the hurricane on track for NO and winds will most
likely still be Cat 4 or higher. I'm hearing that there are tons of people in NO that have no
vehicles such as the poor, or just city dwellers. An old TWC segment just mentioned that FEMA stated
such a scenario could lead to 40,000 to 60,000 fatalities. This sounds alarmist to me, but it is
not my quote. Appears water in "the bowl" could sit for many weeks under many feet of water if this
occurs. Stagnation of water and disease would be a major problem.

I've heard that NO has plans to use the Super Dome for people to take shelter in and climb stands in
the event of flooding. Wonder what kind of winds it can survive in a direct hit. Granted NO is not
directly on the beach but a short jog inland so perhaps there will always be some weakening from
initial landfall.

Some have mentioned chasing this. Whereas it almost never ends up as bad as the hype sometimes it
does. This could be the exception. I'm not going to tell anyone not to chase this as this is what
we do. However I think the real problem assuming you can be in Slidell or where ever and avoid 20
foot plus waves and winds over 140mph is the fact that you will then probably be stuck (trapped) in
the middle of a big disaster area with disease all around. With such a large area inundated what
effects to food, water, gas, supplies and roadways will there be? Seems there is real potential to
be stuck for awhile - maybe a one, two weeks or more.

Also the thing that always bugs me about the idea of chasing these hurricanes....you leave at last
minute in order to really know where the eye will land but that puts you short on time to find
quality shelter before the big winds hit. You can be caught outside. With everyone evacuating in the
way, it seems it could be impossible to make progress through traffic jams to get anywhere such as a
shelter for storm observing. So it could be tough.

Roger, good luck in Slidell if you do it. Best of luck to the rest of you as well if you are
chasing this currently phenomenal storm!

Stormtrack recently created a public board just for this event here: http://stormtrack.org/forum/viewforum.php?f=18&sid=7375e5344022394311e204e535cd2f2c

Here is some earlier discussion about the magnitude of the even on Stormtrack here:
http://stormtrack.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=8016

Bill
(www.TornadoXtreme.com)

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Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 12:55:31 -0500 From: Bill Tabor <bill_ät_TORNADOXTREME.COM> Subject: Stormtrack Hurricane Board

Wanted to let everyone know there is currently a public forum created on Stormtrack just for
hurricane Katrina coverage. Anyone can read and post there without logging on. I'd say cross posts
between wx-chase and ST would be ok too given the magnitude of this potentially unprecedented event.

http://stormtrack.org/forum/viewforum.php?f=18

Bill

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Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 12:57:39 -0500 From: Aaron <kingphelsuma_ät_OU.EDU>
Subject: Re: Freaking 175mph Katrina Cat 5 / F3 to Flood New Orleans? Chase?

It *could* be F3 tornado damage speed. Damage in tornadoes is not just wind velocity, but the quick change in direction and in speed. Hurricanes are much more gradual. I'd be cautious at labeling any hurricane as a f-scale.

That's not even mentioning the fact that wind speed attachments to the F-scale is just a loose guide.

Aaron

  • Original Message ----- From: "Bill Tabor" <bill_ät_TORNADOXTREME.COM> To: <WX-CHASE_ät_listserv.uiuc.edu> Sent: Sunday, August 28, 2005 12:44 PM Subject: [WX-CHASE] Freaking 175mph Katrina Cat 5 / F3 to Flood New Orleans? Chase?

> Freak out! 175 mph winds!? I don't even remember there ever being a
> hurricane from the Atlantic with winds that high. Surely this is higher
> than Camille? That would be also an F3 tornado damage speed.

>

> Even trying to be somewhat conservative it seems reasonable this could be
> the doomsday scenario for New Orleans they've been talking about for
> years. Take a look at this chart which is very good.
> http://www.nola.com/hurricane/images/goingunder.pdf It's 24 mb pdf, but
> nice in that it shows the path of Betsy, and details on the levy system.
> The leftmost levy in the diagram is 14 feet and the one by the Mississippi
> is 21 feet. Cat 3 will be has high as the levy system at 14 feet but waves
> can still wash over. Cat 4 surge is 19 feet and is over the levy flooding
> the city. Cat 5 is 24 feet and over both levees. Keep in mind this is a
> low tide value! What would wave heights be on top of surge!?
>

> Lets hope it doesn't hit the city directly or slightly west as Lon
> mentioned otherwise it doesn't fair good. Current forecast estimates still
> put the hurricane on track for NO and winds will most likely still be Cat
> 4 or higher. I'm hearing that there are tons of people in NO that have no
> vehicles such as the poor, or just city dwellers. An old TWC segment just
> mentioned that FEMA stated such a scenario could lead to 40,000 to 60,000
> fatalities. This sounds alarmist to me, but it is not my quote. Appears
> water in "the bowl" could sit for many weeks under many feet of water if
> this occurs. Stagnation of water and disease would be a major problem.
>

> I've heard that NO has plans to use the Super Dome for people to take
> shelter in and climb stands in the event of flooding. Wonder what kind of
> winds it can survive in a direct hit. Granted NO is not directly on the
> beach but a short jog inland so perhaps there will always be some
> weakening from initial landfall.
>

> Some have mentioned chasing this. Whereas it almost never ends up as bad
> as the hype sometimes it does. This could be the exception. I'm not going
> to tell anyone not to chase this as this is what we do. However I think
> the real problem assuming you can be in Slidell or where ever and avoid 20
> foot plus waves and winds over 140mph is the fact that you will then
> probably be stuck (trapped) in the middle of a big disaster area with
> disease all around. With such a large area inundated what effects to
> food, water, gas, supplies and roadways will there be? Seems there is real
> potential to be stuck for awhile - maybe a one, two weeks or more.
>

> Also the thing that always bugs me about the idea of chasing these
> hurricanes....you leave at last minute in order to really know where the
> eye will land but that puts you short on time to find quality shelter
> before the big winds hit. You can be caught outside. With everyone
> evacuating in the way, it seems it could be impossible to make progress
> through traffic jams to get anywhere such as a shelter for storm
> observing. So it could be tough.
>

> Roger, good luck in Slidell if you do it. Best of luck to the rest of you
> as well if you are chasing this currently phenomenal storm!
>

> Stormtrack recently created a public board just for this event here:
> http://stormtrack.org/forum/viewforum.php?f=18&sid=7375e5344022394311e204e535cd2f2c
>

> Here is some earlier discussion about the magnitude of the even on
> Stormtrack here:
> http://stormtrack.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=8016
>

> Bill
> (www.TornadoXtreme.com)
>

> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
> To unsubscribe from WX-CHASE send e-mail to LISTSERV_ät_PO.UIUC.EDU with
> "unsub wx-chase" in the body of your message. For more information write
> chris_ät_lib.siu.edu.

>

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Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 14:09:22 -0400 From: Steve Marshall <stormnet_ät_ZOOMINTERNET.NET> Subject: NWS warning

I am going to post this in its entirety because of the intense nature of = the storm.=20

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED... .HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE. HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY

VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS. THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE! +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+- To unsubscribe from WX-CHASE send e-mail to LISTSERV_ät_PO.UIUC.EDU with "unsub wx-chase" in the body of your message. For more information write chris_ät_lib.siu.edu.


Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 13:31:40 -0500 From: Bill Tabor <bill_ät_TORNADOXTREME.COM> Subject: Re: NWS warning

Darn, you beat me to it. LOL! I was just about to post this. This is unbelievable huh?!!!

Bill
----- Original Message -----
From: "Steve Marshall" <stormnet_ät_ZOOMINTERNET.NET> To: <WX-CHASE_ät_listserv.uiuc.edu>
Sent: Sunday, August 28, 2005 1:09 PM
Subject: [WX-CHASE] NWS warning

I am going to post this in its entirety because of the intense nature of the storm.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED... .HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE. HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY

VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS. THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE! +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+- To unsubscribe from WX-CHASE send e-mail to LISTSERV_ät_PO.UIUC.EDU with "unsub wx-chase" in the body of your message. For more information write chris_ät_lib.siu.edu.

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Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 13:33:52 -0500 From: Bill Tabor <bill_ät_TORNADOXTREME.COM> Subject: Re: Freaking 175mph Katrina Cat 5 / F3 to Flood New Orleans? Chase?

Right. I definitely agree. As Neal always pointed out tornadoes are dynamic lifting winds. I just
meant in the same range. What ever happened to Neal BTW? - quiet for some time.

I hear Kiesling is supposed to be in New Orleans.

Bill
----- Original Message -----
From: "Aaron" <kingphelsuma_ät_OU.EDU>
To: <WX-CHASE_ät_listserv.uiuc.edu>
Sent: Sunday, August 28, 2005 12:57 PM
Subject: Re: [WX-CHASE] Freaking 175mph Katrina Cat 5 / F3 to Flood New Orleans? Chase?

> It *could* be F3 tornado damage speed. Damage in tornadoes is not just wind velocity, but the
> quick change in direction and in speed. Hurricanes are much more gradual. I'd be cautious at
> labeling any hurricane as a f-scale.

>

> That's not even mentioning the fact that wind speed attachments to the F-scale is just a loose
> guide.
>

> Aaron
>
>
>

> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Bill Tabor" <bill_ät_TORNADOXTREME.COM>
> To: <WX-CHASE_ät_listserv.uiuc.edu>
> Sent: Sunday, August 28, 2005 12:44 PM
> Subject: [WX-CHASE] Freaking 175mph Katrina Cat 5 / F3 to Flood New Orleans? Chase?
>
>
>> Freak out! 175 mph winds!?  I don't even remember there ever being
a hurricane from the Atlantic
>> with winds that high. Surely this is higher than Camille? That would be also an F3 tornado
>> damage speed.
>>
>> Even trying to be somewhat conservative it seems reasonable this
could be the doomsday scenario
>> for New Orleans they've been talking about for years. Take a look at this chart which is very
>> good. http://www.nola.com/hurricane/images/goingunder.pdf It's 24 mb pdf, but nice in that it
>> shows the path of Betsy, and details on the levy system. The leftmost levy in the diagram is 14
>> feet and the one by the Mississippi is 21 feet. Cat 3 will be has high as the levy system at 14
>> feet but waves can still wash over. Cat 4 surge is 19 feet and is over the levy flooding the
>> city. Cat 5 is 24 feet and over both levees. Keep in mind this is a low tide value! What would
>> wave heights be on top of surge!?
>>
>> Lets hope it doesn't hit the city directly or slightly west as Lon
mentioned otherwise it doesn't
>> fair good. Current forecast estimates still put the hurricane on track for NO and winds will most
>> likely still be Cat 4 or higher. I'm hearing that there are tons of people in NO that have no
>> vehicles such as the poor, or just city dwellers. An old TWC segment just mentioned that FEMA
>> stated such a scenario could lead to 40,000 to 60,000 fatalities. This sounds alarmist to me,
>> but it is not my quote. Appears water in "the bowl" could sit for many weeks under many feet of
>> water if this occurs. Stagnation of water and disease would be a major problem.
>>
>> I've heard that NO has plans to use the Super Dome for people to take shelter in and climb stands
>> in the event of flooding. Wonder what kind of winds it can survive in a direct hit. Granted NO
>> is not directly on the beach but a short jog inland so perhaps there will always be some
>> weakening from initial landfall.
>>
>> Some have mentioned chasing this. Whereas it almost never ends up
as bad as the hype sometimes it
>> does. This could be the exception. I'm not going to tell anyone not to chase this as this is
>> what we do. However I think the real problem assuming you can be in Slidell or where ever and
>> avoid 20 foot plus waves and winds over 140mph is the fact that you will then probably be stuck
>> (trapped) in the middle of a big disaster area with disease all around. With such a large area
>> inundated what effects to food, water, gas, supplies and roadways will there be? Seems there is
>> real potential to be stuck for awhile - maybe a one, two weeks or more.
>>
>> Also the thing that always bugs me about the idea of chasing these
hurricanes....you leave at
>> last minute in order to really know where the eye will land but that puts you short on time to
>> find quality shelter before the big winds hit. You can be caught outside. With everyone
>> evacuating in the way, it seems it could be impossible to make progress through traffic jams to
>> get anywhere such as a shelter for storm observing.  So it could be tough.
>>
>> Roger, good luck in Slidell if you do it.  Best of luck to the rest
of you as well if you are
>> chasing this currently phenomenal storm!
>>
>> Stormtrack recently created a public board just for this event here:
>> http://stormtrack.org/forum/viewforum.php?f=18&sid=7375e5344022394311e204e535cd2f2c
>>
>> Here is some earlier discussion about the magnitude of the even on
Stormtrack here:
>> http://stormtrack.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=8016
>>
>> Bill
>> (www.TornadoXtreme.com)
>>
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Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 13:36:07 -0500 From: Bill Tabor <bill_ät_TORNADOXTREME.COM> Subject: Re: Winds Now Reported 184MPH! NWS warning

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KLIX/0508281550.wwus74.html

Bill
----- Original Message -----
From: "Steve Marshall" <stormnet_ät_ZOOMINTERNET.NET> To: <WX-CHASE_ät_listserv.uiuc.edu>
Sent: Sunday, August 28, 2005 1:09 PM
Subject: [WX-CHASE] NWS warning

I am going to post this in its entirety because of the intense nature of the storm.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED... .HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE. HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY

VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS. THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE! +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+- To unsubscribe from WX-CHASE send e-mail to LISTSERV_ät_PO.UIUC.EDU with "unsub wx-chase" in the body of your message. For more information write chris_ät_lib.siu.edu.

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Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 13:37:55 -0500 From: Bill Tabor <bill_ät_TORNADOXTREME.COM> Subject: Re: Winds Now Reported 184MPH! NWS warning

That's 184mph wind at flight level. Still 175mph at ground.

Bill
----- Original Message -----
From: "Bill Tabor" <bill_ät_tornadoxtreme.com> To: "Steve Marshall" <stormnet_ät_ZOOMINTERNET.NET>; <WX-CHASE_ät_listserv.uiuc.edu> Sent: Sunday, August 28, 2005 1:36 PM
Subject: Re: [WX-CHASE]Winds Now Reported 184MPH! NWS warning

> http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KLIX/0508281550.wwus74.html

>

> Bill
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Steve Marshall" <stormnet_ät_ZOOMINTERNET.NET>
> To: <WX-CHASE_ät_listserv.uiuc.edu>
> Sent: Sunday, August 28, 2005 1:09 PM
> Subject: [WX-CHASE] NWS warning
>
>

> I am going to post this in its entirety because of the intense nature of the storm.
>

> URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
> NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
> 1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
>

> ...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...
>

> .HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
> STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.
>

> MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
> LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
> FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
> DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
>

> THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
> PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
> FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
> BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
> WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.
>

> HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
> FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.
>

> AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
> AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
> VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
> ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
> WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.
>

> POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
> AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
> INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.
>

> THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
> THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
> CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
> KILLED.
>

> AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
> HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
> CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
>

> ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
> OUTSIDE!
>

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> To unsubscribe from WX-CHASE send e-mail to LISTSERV_ät_PO.UIUC.EDU with
> "unsub wx-chase" in the body of your message. For more information write chris_ät_lib.siu.edu.
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>
>
>

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-- 
terveisin, Olli

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