Leonid predictions for year 2002

Lyytinen's Team Leonid predictions for year 2002

Here are improved leonid predictions for year 2002 (Esko Lyytinen et al). These are our final predictions.

Newest leonid observation results from year 2001 have been used in calculation. It is assumed that differences are explained partially with actual strength differences of different trails. Especially 4 rev trail seems to be weaker than other trails (or at least weaker than trail from year 1899, which caused leonid storms of 1966 and 1999). Also year 2000 observation about 4 rev trail (after modeling of non gravitational forces) was consistent about this assumption.

Apparently there was given too much weight to year 1999 observations in our 2001 leonid predictions. Corrrect ZHR value for year 1966 is significant. Esko has said before year 2001 leonid maximum, that if P. Jenniskens ZHR value 15000 +/- 3000 for year 1966 were correct (Astronomy & Astrophysics 1995, P. Jenniskens, Meteor Stream Activity II, page 211), predicted ZHR values should be lowered.

These leonid predictions for year 2002 are calculated using modeling of non gravitational forces (continuous acceleration). After that modeling 7 rev trail ZHR value is 3500. The result of 4 rev trail calculation is 2600. 7 rev trail meteors are brighter, so they are more easily seen in the sky brightened by the Moon.

5 rev trail modeling is from year 2000 (Earth, Moon and Planets 82-83: 149-166, 2000, Lyytinen et al, Predicting the Strength of Leonid Outbursts). 4 rev trail predicted time of the peak in solar longitude is 236.890 and 7 rev trail predicted time of the peak in solar longitude is 236.613. There may appear possible weak 7 rev trail sub-peak at solar longitude 236.607.

Table 1. Lyytinen's Team Leonid predictions 2002

trail		time (UT)		ZHR		half strength full width
7r (1767)	19.11.2002 at 04:03	3500		106 minutes
5r (1833)	19.11.2002 at 06:36	160		
4r (1866)	19.11.2002 at 10:40	2600		122 minutes

In picture 1 is 7 rev trail predicted maximum and in picture 2 is 4 rev trail predicted maximum.

Team: Esko Lyytinen, Tom Van Flandern and Markku Nissinen

Picture 1. Predicted maximum of 7 rev trail

Picture 2. Predicted maximum of 4 rev trail

Leonid predictions for year 2003

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